GERMAN FRIEND PUZZLES OVER AMERICAN PRIMARIES

A GERMAN FRIEND PUZZLES OVER BARAK OBAMA,

PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

AN EXCHANGE

James R. Fisher, Jr., Ph.D.
© June 5, 2008

GERMAN FRIEND WRITES:

Hello Jim,

What do you think about the victory of Obama, and his chances against McCain?

Manfred

MY RESPONSE

As to your question, I have this to say, the presumptive presidential nominee for the Democratic Party played by the rules in the primaries, and out finessed Hilary Clinton.

That is why he won the nomination. If he does the same during the next five months, and runs a campaign like the general whom he has proven to be, he will win.

A POINT TO NOTE

Hilary had a $100 million war chest before Super Tuesday, and spent most of it, thinking it would be all over by then. It wasn't and she had apparently no back up strategy.

CONSIDER THIS

Early on, Obama had no name recognition, little funds, and had to resort to the Internet, and college educated voters. That is what we hear over and over again. I

What we don’t hear is that when he won the caucus in Iowa, defeating Hilary Clinton, among others, Iowa put him on the map.

Iowans (I'm one of them) like straight talk and intelligent argument. Obama gave them that. Iowans are smart and they can see through pretense and posturing.

Thanks to Iowa, Obama came out of Super Tuesday alive if not yet viable. His appeal to the Internet kept him in the race. So, now, while Clinton is in debt, some think to the tune of $50 million or more, he has well over a $100 million and growing to take on McCain.

That said Obama, unfortunately, took only seven of the last seventeen primary states, and Clinton took all of the industrial states of blue-collar workers including Indiana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky, California and Texas, as well as Michigan and Florida, which did not count for violating primary rules of the Democratic Party. Now delegates of these misbehaving states are going to be seated at the Democratic Convention in Denver with half votes.

Blue-collar workers with no college, and women over fifty liked Hilary Clinton in the primaries, while college students and college trained professionals liked Obama.

To be noted, traditionally, blue-collar workers and women over fifty come out to vote in presidential elections.

This is not true of young people. We shall see if they break tradition and come out to vote in the fall as they have in the primaries, which is a big "if."

Finally, there are a lot of registered independents (BB is so registered) and Republicans (I am so registered) who are disenchanted with the Bush Administration, and don't want "four more years of Bush" in John McCain.

McCain almost beat Bush in the primaries in 2000. Too bad because I think he would have made a better president. But he is now 72 to Obama's 46, a generation gap, and I think the next four years are going to be a strenuous test for the new president.

Whatever happens, this is a great historic moment. Time will tell if Barak Obama is looked upon as "the Democratic presidential nominee who happens to be black," or the Black Democratic presidential nominee. I would hope that race has nothing to do with the outcome, but I'm an idealist.

ITEM

Here not far from my home on Interstate 75, a giant (50 feet by 30 feet) Confederate flag has been mounted on private property, supposedly in honor of Confederate President Jefferson Davis's birthday. We shall see if it holds any significance.

Even if Barak Obama is not elected president, he remains a powerful model for people of color. I can imagine how I would feel if I were black. I would be euphoric, thinking anything is possible in this country. Imagine what that could do for young blacks who are ambivalent about their future. Powerful stuff!

BB and I plan to vote for Barak Obama. We feel in this long primary campaign we have gotten to know him. His greatest challenge during the next five months is to act presidential, to act as if he is already president.

Everyone is talking about an Obama-Clinton "dream team" ticket. I cannot think of a more disastrous development for Obama.

I hope his advisers steer him away from that. I am a Republican conservative who has a preference for liberal Obama, only because we need to get out of the rut. I do not want a weak liberal as president, but a tough liberal who is not afraid to take on the Democratic Party bosses.

Just some thoughts for what they are worth.

Be always well,

Jim