THE PRESIDENT SKATING AT MIDTERM ELECTIONS ON THE FISHER PARADIGM -- IS IT TOO LITTLE TOO LATE?

THE PRESIDENT SKATING AT MIDTERM ELECTIONS ON THE FISHER PARADIGM ™ --
IS IT TOO LITTLE TOO LATE?

James R. Fisher, Jr., Ph.D.
© September 2006

During the summer of 2004 in the midst of the quadrennial madness of presidential politics, I applied the Fisher Paradigm ™ to the possible outcome of the election, not only predicting that President George W. Bush would win, but being fairly accurate as to how the electoral votes would go in that election.

People for President Bush were reassured with the Fisher Paradigm ™ assessment, but it was quickly forgotten once the election was finalized.

Granted, it is hard to take the paradigm seriously because it is not quantitative, cognitive, statistical, and doesn't rise even to the level of being wrong. Actually, this puts it in good company and that is precisely what the evaluation is of Brian Greene’s “The Elegant Universe” (1999), which champions "string theory."

Now, this is not to suggest that the Fisher Paradigm ™ belongs in such company. Not in the least. String theory mathematics is excruciatingly tough, and when problem arise, the solutions often introduce yet another layer of complexity, reminiscent of a Rube Goldberg contraction.

You see, string theory attempts to fill the gap left by two major incompatible theories of the twentieth century: relativity and quantum theory. Michael D. Lemonick reports in Time (August 21, 2006):

“Quantum theory describes the universe as intrinsically discontinuous; energy, for example, can come in bits just so small, and no smaller. Relativity, on the other hand, treats time, and space, and gravity as a smooth, unbroken continuum. Each theory has its purposes, and generally, they don't overlap. But when dealing with very large masses or time periods that are infinitesimally small, like the core of a black hole, or the first moments after the Big Bang, neither works. Enter string theory. These are claimed to be the basic units of matter and energy not as particles, but as minuscule, vibrating loops and snippets of stuff resembling string, which turn out to exist not just in our familiar four dimensions of space and time, but in ten or more other dimensions. Bizarre as it seemed, this scheme appeared on first blush to explain why particles have the characteristics they do.”

What intrigues me about all this is the absence of proof, fundamental to science, and since it doesn't rise to the level of being proven wrong, it enters phenomenology, or religion.

It was Thomas Aquinas (1225 – 1274) who papered over the cracks between faith and reason in his SUMMA THEOLOGIAE, arguing:

“Philosophy examined the supernatural order in the light of reason, and theology examined it in the light of revelation. Although reason was used in theology, revelation did not fall into the province of philosophy. And philosophy could not contradict theology because truth could not contradict truth.”

Science is now moving into uncharted territory and its sacred scientific paradigm is proving less than perfect for the intrusion.

FISHER PARADIGM ™ -- LESS GRAND, AND MORE FUN

The Fisher Paradigm ™ is as simple as the definition of the three parts of a noun: a person, place, or thing, only it looks at these three aspects in terms of profiles:

Personality (person) profile; Geographic (place) profile; and Demographic (thing) profile.

Each is a dynamic sphere of influence that is constantly in a state of motion and confluence with the two other aspects. Each is in the other and the other is in each. We all use this mechanism all the time but not necessarily as a tool but in a flippant and unconscious way. It is when we harness it that the fun comes in.

The Fisher Paradigm ™ is an organizational development (OD) tool that is not disposed to psychometrics, statistical indices, or longitudinal studies. It is a whimsical tool of intuitive insight based upon the criteria that explode into the consciousness when observing a certain phenomenon.

My recent attention has been on President George W. Bush and his blatant offense in the face of plunging popularity and discouraging developments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Let us take a cursory examination of this in terms of the president's approach to midterm elections in Congress in November 2006:

PERSONALITY PROFILE: The president is combative, the more so the negative publicity the more his dander rises to confront the situation. Americans like a fighter as they associate themselves with a combative even a violent instinct for engagement. Americans like a leader to roll up his sleeves and take on the challenge. They don't care about what he says or how he says it but that he says it, that he takes action, gets out of his peek-a-boo stance and starts throwing punches.

The president has correctly gauged that he personifies the national personality. When he acts as he has of late, he gains the attention of the undecided, the timid, the laid back, the indecisive, and the herd that is always waiting to jump on the bandwagon of the winner.

GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE: As much hype as there has been about the failing wars, failing response of the government to Katrina, and as devastated as Americans are with the 9/11 terrorist attack, the country as a whole is fat and happy and focused on other things. People are looking more forward to the NFL and NHL season, and the World Series than to the midterm elections.

If fifty percent of the eligible voters turnout it will be a surprise. Television, cell phones, laptops and the Internet have managed to narcotize the people into nearly a somnambulant state of conformity.

The president seems to sense this and know that people receive ninety percent of their information through their eyes as they don't read newspapers, magazines or books, and they make their minds up on a whim, and that whim changes each time they are subject to a poll.

Like a walk off home run in the bottom of the ninth, the president knows it isn't over until it is over, and that he is doing what makes that possibility turn into reality. He knows that the only people that listen to people on the Washington, DC beltway are other people within it. And so he will remain for the next three months a ubiquitous pugilist throwing punches in the east and west, north and south, and not worrying about how many land, as people don't judge the winner in this kind of contest by who has won, but who most reflects the way they see themselves, that is, as in-your-face combatants, when that couldn't be further from the fact.

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE: The president knows that he has an ace up his sleeve that infuriates his opponents in Congress, and even many in his own party, because with a fully volunteer military, no one really has any leverage on him over the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

People would like these wars to end, for the men and women in the arm forces to come home, but they are not willing to get off the couch and lay that sentiment on the line, and he knows that. They probably won't even vote at midterm elections. He knows that, too. He also knows that the Harvard, Princeton, Yale Elitism (HYPE) within the Beltway doesn't resonate with most Americans.

Americans can be rich or poor, educated or not, successful or in decline, but one thing is certain and that is they love to back an underdog, and he has painted himself into that corner, and has loved every minute of it.

Now, the president is putting that image on the road, swinging for the fences with nobody worrying about how many times he has struck out in the past. It is not fashionable to broadcast this sentiment, but it remains in the bones, and the president is working them now.

He swaggers and rolls his shoulders like the Texas Ranger he sees himself as being, a guy with calluses on his hands, and a saddle bag over his shoulder, and shit-kicking boots on his feet, talking in “plain speak” with a wry smile and a kick-ass grin, knowing this infuriates his opponents in their three-piece button-down world, the privileged world that he came from, but nobody cares because he acts, walks, talks, and fumbles along like they do.

Yes, the underdog image he plays to the hilt, but the question is: has he waited too long to recall why he won the presidency in the first place. It wasn't his brains, good looks, or his command of the situation. It was because he was trusted to stay in character consistent with his image. He left it for a while, but he is now back in full colors.

Personality, Geography, and Demographics collide with each other to produce insight and intuitive assessment. It is not my nature to hedge my hunch. If the president had started on this track only three months ago, I would say the Senate and House would remain Republican. Now, it is not so certain.

That said, if he maintains his present gusto, and circumstances don't bite him harder in the ass than they already have, I feel we are doomed to have a Republican Congress for the next two years. Democrats! Are you listening?